1. 2007: Foke (all parties except PKS) vs. Adang (PKS) 58-42. 2012: Foke (all parties except PDIP & Gerindra) vs. Jokowi (PDIP & Gerindra) 47-53. An 11-point swing against Foke.
2. Similarity: Both elections, Foke is on the “all parties except _____” side. Difference: On 2007, Foke was against the “Islamist” opposition, while on 2012, he is against the “secularist” opposition.
3. Repeat: Both elections, the “secularist”-leaning side wins. (In other words, in both cases, PKS lost.) Nevertheless, does the drop from 58% (Foke 2007) to 53% (Jokowi 2012) indicate that Jakarta leans more “Islamist”? Not really. In 2007, the composition of DPRD for the gubernatorial election is 57 (everyone else) vs. 18 (PKS), while in 2012 the composition is 17 (PDIP & Gerindra) vs. 77 (everyone else). In 2007, although PKS (the more “Islamist” side) only had 24% of the seats in DPRD, they got 42% vote, i.e., a 18-point gain. In 2012, although PDIP & Gerindra (the more “secularist” side) only had 18% of the seats in DPRD, they got 53% vote, i.e., 35-point gain — higher than PKS’ gain in 2007.
4. First round: Foke/Jokowi = 34.05%/42.60% = 44.42%/55.58%. Based on the final result (47%-53%), you could say that Foke gets more voters from those voting for other candidates in round 1, as he was able to reduce his deficit from 11 points to 6-8 points. The coalition with Golkar and PKS does help him getting more votes.
5. Nevertheless, if he gets all the voters from Alex and HNW, actually Foke should have won by 52%-48%. The problem, then, is Jokowi is able to get 5 points off those voters to turn things around. The coalition is solid, indeed, but not solid enough to propel Foke to victory.
6. The quick count results also showed that Jokowi-Ahok was above the overall average in JakBar (+0.15) and JakUt (+2.83!), and below it in JakPus (-2.04), JakSel (-0.58), and JakTim (-0.53). Easily explainable by the larger percentage of Chinese population in JakBar and JakUt. Good turnout in JakBar, but nullified by bad turnout in JakUt.
7. Prabowo begins.