Jakarta 2012 quick count result

The quick count result is out and Jokowi wins the election by 6-8 points. I guess I under-estimate Jakarta’s structural spoilt vote problem, which should be at 20-25% rather than 10-15%, and hence over-estimate the turnout for this election. I thought that people will be more enthusiastic to vote in this round, and hence I was guessing that there would be an additional 5% of voters today. It turns out that the turnout only increased by 2%, which means that, the increase, if any, is very little. If I use the average turnout given by Kompas & LSI and put everything else the same, I will get an 7-point win for Jokowi, which will be closer to the quick count results.

(Again, sorry for the crappy image. Just click it to see it clearly.)

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